It's up for grabs now.

England can secure ownership of the Ashes urn by winning the third Test in Perth starting Thursday.

It would be a result unimaginably emphatic just three weeks ago - making the series safe at the earliest opportunity.

By taking charge of this five-match contest at the Adelaide Oval with their first innings win in Australia since 1986, England have left the home side with everything to do.

Australia know this and will make up to four changes in search of a winning formula. Simon Katich misses out with an Achilles injury and may not be seen again in Melbourne, Sydney or even the Baggy Green cap.

The unorthodox aggressor Philip Hughes returns to the side a diminished figure since his much-hyped Ashes debut last year. The left-hander was dropped after two Tests in England, and has been recalled since but was dropped again. The 22-year-old has a reputed weakness to the short ball but the tourists remain wary of his capacity to score quickly.

Marcus North has gone from would-be captain to the sidelines in six weeks. Maybe he will one day skipper Australia A. His surprising replacement is Steve Smith, 21, who batted at eight in his two previous Test appearances against Pakistan last year. The leg-spinner will bring some spirit to a forlorn-looking home team but he is not the finished article with bat or ball. Wicketkeeper Brad Haddin, scorer of three Test centuries including two against England, might be a better bet to follow Mike Hussey.

Thereafter it is anyone's guess. There has been a campaign for Shane Warne's return to the Test arena but England have moved quickly to neutralize the threat, deploying special agent Elizabeth Hurley to sidetrack the great leg-spinner.

Instead the home selectors have called up Michael Beer, a first-class cricketer for only a couple of months who by all accounts owes his inclusion to Warne's public endorsement after Adelaide.

The left-armer has an appetite for the challenge, declaring: 'I'll see what situation the game's in, and the conditions. I'd say I enjoy a contest. I like a contest, but changing what I've done so far is probably not the best thing to do.'

It would be extraordinary, though, if he were to make a significant impact on debut, not least on a ground where pace historically dominates. As such it would make sense for Australia to leave out Beer and include all four available fast bowlers: the retained Ryan Harris and Peter Siddle, and recalled Mitchell Johnson and Ben Hilfenhaus. Sharing the workload in short bursts with relief from Smith, this Australian attack could take 20 wickets in five days at the WACA, though not necessarily if Australia have to bat in that time as well.

Harris was the pick of a bad bunch in the second Test while Johnson, singularly abysmal in the Brisbane opener, is needed both for his batting and the potential, however slim, that he will recapture the form he showed against South Africa. Siddle and Hilfenhaus, who opened this series bowling with such optimism only three weeks ago, will contest the last place if Ricky Ponting demands a specialist spinner.

Either way the home side are going into a game with five batsmen and four-and-a-half bowlers on a result pitch. Barring extreme weather, Punter is in the last chance saloon and gambling wildly to save his legacy.

England don't have it all their own way, either. Stuart Broad has been ruled out for the series, weakening a four-man bowling attack that already includes the impressive but callow Steven Finn.

Coach Andy Flower has refused to commit to a replacement but Chris Tremlett is expected to edge out Yorkshire pair Tim Bresnan and Ajmal Shahzad. He has the style for Perth, impressed in his previous Test stint and is the most credible front-line replacement for Broad.

Tremlett and Finn will offer serious height, the greatest of all assets in Perth if allied with accuracy and aggression. England's fast bowlers have had the edge in all departments since Siddle took his day-one hat-trick and James Anderson is back from the birth of his second child in England to lead the attack.

With the batsmen firing so emphatically in their last two innings there is little for Flower to worry about except complacency.

The Zimbabwean is aware to the threat and was amusingly satisfied to see his team toiling in the recent tour match in Melbourne: 'Adelaide was an important moment in the series and it was very important for us to keep our feet firmly on the floor thereafter, and the Victoria game helped us do that.'

Provided there is none of the slack fielding seen last week England should not have a repeat performance. The WACA curator has promised a pacy deck that will offer far more than Melbourne, and in-form Jonathan Trott and Kevin Pietersen have enjoyed a rest along with Anderson, Finn and Graeme Swann.

Key men:

Australia: Ricky Ponting. He looks resigned on the field but is obviously putting up a fight behind the scenes - how else to explain Nathan Hauritz's yard sale this week? Has to do much better as a captain and with the bat (70 runs in four knocks) or the jig is up.

England: Steven Finn was picked by England at the start of the year because he looked built for Australia - and for Perth in particular. He tired badly in Brisbane but still got a six-fer, did his part in Adelaide and following Broad's injury looks set for the series.

Last Five Results:

2010: 2nd Test England won by an innings and 91 runs at The Adelaide Oval.

2010: 1st Test Match drawn at The Gabba, Brisbane.

2009: 5th Test England won by 197 runs at The Oval, London.

2009: 4th Test Australia won by an innings and 80 runs at Headingley, Leeds.

2009: 3rd Test Match drawn at Edgbaston, Birmingham.

Prediction

On a result deck do not write off Australia, particularly if they trust their four fast bowlers rather than pursuing this pass-the-parcel madness with spin. But given a choice between the two teams with the draw off the table, you have to give England a sizable edge.

Probable teams:

Australia: Philip Hughes, Shane Watson, Ricky Ponting, Michael Clarke, Mike Hussey, Brad Haddin, Steven Smith, Mitchell Johnson, Ryan Harris, Peter Siddle, Ben Hilfenhaus.

England: Andrew Strauss, Alastair Cook, Jonathan Trott, Kevin Pietersen, Paul Collingwood, Ian Bell, Matt Prior, Graeme Swann, James Anderson, Chris Tremlett, Steven Finn.

Dates: 16-20 December
Morning session: 10.30-12.30 local time(02.30-04.30 GMT)
Afternoon session: 13.10-15.10 local time(05.10-07.10 GMT)
Evening session: 15.30-17.30 local time(07.30-09.30 GMT).

Match referee: Jeff Crowe

Umpires: Marais Erasmus, Billy Doctrove; Aleem Dar.

Peter May