SkySports pundit Mike Atherton expects Australia to play a fourth seamer ahead of Nathan Hauritz in the opening Ashes Test.
Unless Australia turn up at Cardiff next week and find a complete, raging turner of a pitch I think Nathan Hauritz's fate is sealed.
The off-spinner looks down on confidence, unsure where his next wicket is coming from and the Lions have treated him disdainfully at Worcester, in all honesty.
Hauritz is regarded as a containing bowler and got the nod to tour ahead of Jason Krejza who, from the little I've seen of him, gives it a bigger rip.
The trouble for Australia is that Hauritz is going for runs and doesn't look like he can stem that flow whereas seamer Stuart Clark is bowling with accuracy in the middle overs.
The form of Clark was one of two positives to come out of the second day at Worcester, the other being the form of Brett Lee bowled a superb spell either side of tea and got the old ball to swing.
In contrast Mitchell Johnson looked a bit rusty but on a hot day he worked hard on a flat pitch and got miles into his legs and with Peter Siddle waiting in the wings I expect Australia to go into the first Test of the Ashes with four seamers.
Ricky Ponting more or less ordered Lee into the bowling attack after seeing his bowler banter with the crowd and Lee responded by breaking the 172-run stand between Joe Denly and Stephen Moore and taking a five-for.
It's so important when the pitch is flat and the ball is old and scuffed on one side to have a bowler like Lee who can swing it into the block-hole.
That delivery may be fine to play when you are set but is very difficult for incoming batsmen like Ian Bell to deal with when they've been sat in the pavilion for a long time.
Getting the ball off the straight and narrow is crucial in the middle part of any innings and that's what England and Simon Jones in particular did so well in 2005.
I don't think Ponting will be unduly concerned at this stage with the way the team is shaping up but he will have to be more patient with Australia's short-comings.
He's probably come to terms with the fact that he's not captaining the great team he did previously and therefore he is going to be spending longer periods of time in the field and is going to have to think a bit smarter.
It's true that he is short of runs and form with the bat as one hundred in his last 21 Test innings suggests.
The shot he played to get out to Graham Onions in Australia's first innings was one of a man who is searching for the ball.
He fenced at one he would have normally left alone or cut to the boundary but he went at it with a straight bat and that's a dangerous shot early on in your innings.
But Ponting is a very experienced player now and experienced players are capable of getting through these sticky patches better than younger players because they have a fount of experience to draw upon.
He knows that he's scored runs all over the world in all types of conditions and there is no reason why he shouldn't score runs again.
I'd say the key for Ponting is how much energy and drive he has got; how much does he want it? He's achieved virtually everything there is to achieve in the game so how much does he want to keep churning out the runs?
Mike Hussey and Simon Katich, who is a bit of a make-shift opener, covered the cracks in an inconsistent line-up admirably.
For most of his first-class career Katich has been a middle-order player but he is enjoying his time up at the top.
Generally, he hits the ball a lot straighter now than he did in the past and England will need to work out whether they can go at Katich as they did in 2005 with plenty of fielders in the arc between backward point and first slip or whether he is an improved player and has changed his game since then.
The opener was caught five short of a hundred by Graham Onions off Steve Harmison - an intriguing combination to toy with.
Harmison nudged the early nineties on the speed gun on day one and didn't give Phil Hughes any width outside off-stump, tucking him up.
He sent down plenty of short balls but they were all straight - that was the important thing - and the final bouncer that snared Hughes was in that blind-spot for the left-hander, over middle and middle and leg.
His performance will have intrigued the watching England selectors, that is for sure, but Onions is the man in possession and I think the selectors will stick with him for the first Test.
They will be happy that Harmison has shown some form and is there or thereabouts. He is there to be selected but I'd be surprised if he jumped ahead of Onions in the pecking order.











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