The second Test between England and Australia starts at Lord's on Thursday - but then you probably knew that. The 2009 Ashes was the most hyped series in cricket history even before Sunday's nerve-shredding conclusion to the first Test. Now the tenor has been raised yet further.

The first three and a half days in Cardiff were moribund, a chief executive's pitch apparently condemning the opening rubber to a draw. England saved their paymasters' blushes with a disastrous second innings batting performance, ironically setting up a finale of almost unbearable intensity that showed Test cricket at its best.

That Paul Collingwood, Jimmy Anderson, Monty Panesar and a rain delay were able to salvage a draw from the wreckage is also good for the series. Australia would have delighted in traveling to north London, where they famously last lost an Ashes Test in 1934, 1-0 up.

Both teams are now showing the pressure that such attention brings. Visiting captain Ricky Ponting has criticised England's time-wasting tactics on Sunday, received some uncomplimentary responses from home coach Andy Flower and countered again. Only one team finishes this contest happy and animosity is an inevitable by-product of top-level competition.

A second big development in three days since Cardiff is a recurrence of Andrew Flintoff's knee injury. The Lancastrian has announced that he will retire from Test cricket at the end of this series but has confirmed he will play on Thursday. The Tests at Edgbaston, Headingley and The Oval are a problem for another day but England will hope he persists in bowling himself into arthritic agony throughout the summer.

England will therefore make only one guaranteed change: Swalec Stadium hero Panesar dropping out for either Graham Onions or Steve Harmison. The temptation to replace Stuart Broad, who was badly exposed as a third seamer in Cardiff, with either a second Durham man or Ian Bell will be resisted. One tactic makes the tail too long, the other places too much pressure on Flintoff in a four-man attack.

Australia by contrast could not be happier with their top seven. Four batsmen scored centuries in Cardiff with a fifth adding 83. Australia made the same runs for six wickets as England managed for 18. There is one shared problem between the two sides, though: how to bowl out the opposition twice?

It has been common practice to point out that Australia would've secured an easy Cardiff victory with Glenn McGrath and Shane Warne in tow. Fewer people have asked whether they would have done so with Brett Lee. The fast bowler's late withdrawal for the first Test seemed a massive blow to the tourists and it is difficult to imagine Panesar and Anderson surviving an hour against him. That said both Peter Siddle and Ben Hilfenhaus performed impressively in his absence while Nathan Hauritz meanwhile was the best spinner on either side. Instead the real let-down was Mitchell Johnson, who performed as if he had never seen a right-hander before.

Stuart Clark, whose omission last weekend was a big surprise, has experience at Lord's with Middlesex and most closely resembles McGrath, who enjoyed HQ more than most. It is not clear whether Clark was excluded on form, which has been poor, or with a deliberate intention to freshen up the attack on his favoured ground. If the latter, who would Australia leave out?

Johnson's form over the last year deserves better and assuming they don't score four centuries every innings they still need his batting. Siddle, Hauritz and Hilfenhaus all did more than was asked of them - indeed if the latter had been invited to take the ball more frequently on Sunday afternoon that might have been enough. After his public outburst the focus will be on Ponting for precisely this kind of tactical mis-step, not to mention the 'spirit' in which he plays the game.

Despite the three-day win over the West Indies in May and talk of Harmy-helping bounce, two championship matches at Lord's this season have produced the same result as the previous six Tests: a draw. England have previously fancied themselves as having the more inventive bowling attack for such a surface though did not show as much in Cardiff. Australia at least cemented their status as a team who can bat time and runs in such circumstances. The hosts need to raise every aspect of their game on return to headquarters.

Key Players

England: Kevin Pietersen. The batting order was third-rate in Wales and though KP played his part in that he is the best hope of a big score. Raises his game for the biggest stages and averages 72.90 at Lord's (admittedly 60 has been the benchmark of adequacy there in recent years).

Australia: Mitchell Johnson. Australia should be in the box-seat after dominating the first Test and heading to a favoured hunting ground. But they need more from their spearhead if they are to take 20 wickets with four bowlers.

Prediction

Despite their terrible Ashes history England have a decent 21st century record at Lord's. It is therefore possible to make a decent case for either side but so much depends on the pitch. And no-one who saw Bell's effortless 199 in the corresponding match last summer could say anything but another draw.

Last Five Head-To-Head Results

2009: First Test: Match drawn at Swalec Stadium, Cardiff
2006-7: Fifth Test: Australia won by 10 wickets at the Sydney Cricket Ground
2006-7: Fourth Test: Australia won by an innings and 99 runs at the Melbourne Cricket Ground
2006-7: Third Test: Australia won by 206 runs at the WACA, Perth
2006-7: Second Test: Australia won by six wickets at the Adelaide Oval

Likely Teams:

England: Alastair Cook, Andrew Strauss, Ravi Bopara, Kevin Pietersen, Paul Collingwood, Matt Prior, Andrew Flintoff, Stuart Broad, Graeme Swann, Steve Harmison, James Anderson.

Australia: Philip Hughes, Simon Katich, Ricky Ponting, Mike Hussey, Michael Clarke, Marcus North, Brad Haddin, Mitchell Johnson, Nathan Hauritz, Peter Siddle, Ben Hilfenhaus.

Dates: 16-20 July, 11:00-13:00, 13:40-15:40, 16:00-18:00 (all times BST).

Match Referee: Jeff Crowe
Umpires: Billy Doctrove and Rudi Koertzen

Peter May