Before Christmas one commentator warned: "England are sleepwalking towards an Alastair Cook captaincy." At Chittagong on Friday they will wake to find the prophecy fulfilled as the Essex batsman takes charge of the Test team for the first time.

Stand-in captain Cook claimed a three-nil ODI series win over Bangladesh ahead of this two-rubber series and England are cast-iron favourites despite a lengthy injury list. Having arrived without their senior batsman and bowler, Andrew Strauss and James Anderson, other leading figures have dropped out. Ryan Sidebottom has gone home, Graham Onions sits out and Stuart Broad will have a late Thursday fitness test before confirming his participation.

The senior pacemen falling like skittles matters less when spin is expected to dominate, in this case off-spin: James Tredwell partners Graeme Swann in a strategy that should get the job done but has no serious long-term future.

The Kent bowler is also likely to share his debut with at least one team-mate, although such is the selection confusion that it might be a three-club journeyman opening bat or a 20-year-old seamer with more GCSEs than first-class fiver-fers. Which do England need more?

In the first category is Michael Carberry, who had an indifferent tour match against the Tigers' A side, making 5 and 35, while his declaration bowling (four overs, 0/78) rather ruled out an all-rounder's spot. The alternative sees Jonathan Trott opening with the skipper, Ian Bell returning to number three and Matt Prior, so strong in South Africa when England were on top but enfeebled under pressure, restored to his Ashes role at six.

If Carberry plays then Broad would be one of only two seamers in a four-man attack and carrying a back injury. Among five bowlers Broad would assume more responsibility batting at seven but get more rest in the field. And if Broad fails his fitness test then Bangladesh are in the game because England would choose from five quicks who have two caps between them in three years.

Andy Flower has kept his bowling cards close to his chest on tour. Liam Plunkett and Luke Wright were considered next in line after touring South Africa. But the England coach has talked up late replacements Tim Bresnan and Steven Finn, damning the men in possession with faint praise. Ajmal Shahzad, a shock inclusion in the original 16 but logically ahead of Bresnan and Finn, is also in the mix.

The answer to this conundrum should be Wright but the Sussex all-rounder faces a career as a one-day specialist. The more adventurous among us would still like to see England back their top five and take the attack to Bangladesh - all of the seaming options except Finn can hold a bat and Swann will likely provide runs when there's no pace and bounce. If the counter-attacking strategy was justified in South Africa then it is not suitable to conditions and opponents here.

But most expect that England will stay with the same balance, entrusting Bresnan to support Broad, Tredwell and Swann to do most of the donkey work, and fifth bowler Paul Collingwood to continue his quest for the elusive 88mph ball that Duncan Fletcher promised from him many years ago.

Bangladesh have dropped batsman Mohammad Ashraful, their most capped and probably best-known cricketer, due to poor form. Raqibul Hasan, who made 107 not out and 51 in the drawn A game, was the nominated stand-in before his dramatic retirement from international cricket on Wednesday. It is thought that Raqibul is protesting his World Twenty20 squad omission and at 22 years old it is premature to consider the retirement permanent. Jahurul Islam, 23, takes his place and will win a first cap if the selectors stick to their intended make-up.

The hosts will likely make at least one more change to the team that lost by 121 runs to New Zealand in February. At Hamilton they fielded three seam bowlers but may now trim one for a third slow bowler - and preferably a left-armer given Kevin Pietersen's recent travails.

Their choice is between Abdur Razzak, the experienced ODI campaigner who has failed to convince in Tests; Enamul Haque Junior, who made his debut against England in 2003 as a suspiciously stubbly 16-year-old; and Naeem Islam, who has the unfortunate stigma of being right-handed and therefore poses no danger to the visiting number four batsman. Rubel Hossain will likely make way, leaving Shafiul Islam to partner Shahadat Hossain, the only man in the home squad who has collected 20 Test caps.

England retained their unique unbeaten record against Bangladesh with a ODI series whitewash and have Eoin Morgan to thank for that. Despite their close shave over 50 overs this ought to be a different proposition. Cook's men are stronger in Tests, Shakib al Hasan's are not, and the longer form is unkind to underdogs.

Both sides are ultimately playing for long-term development rather than the prize itself. The Tigers will hope to be a serious proposition when England next visit. Their opponents remain unsure of their strongest or best balanced team and will welcome the chance to audition a few hopefuls here.

Key Men

Bangladesh: Shakib al Hasan has impressed all comers in the one-day series: wise beyond his 22 years, no respecter of more garlanded opposition and an always-involved all-round cricketer. His leadership is ever more important with Ashraful dropped and Mashrafe Mortaza injured - this is an inexperienced home side.

England: Graeme Swann's transformation into a leading spinner has been a joy over the last couple of seasons. On docile surfaces against youthful opposition with little artillery support, the 16-cap class clown has to graduate to head boy.

Last Four Head-To-Head Results

2005: 2nd Test England beat Bangladesh by an innings and 27 runs at Chester-le-Street
2005: 1st Test England best Bangladesh by an innings and 261 runs at Lord's
2003: 2nd Test England beat Bangladesh by 329 runs at MA Aziz Stadium
2003: 1st Test England beat Bangladesh by seven wickets at Bangabandhu National Stadium

Prediction

This has been described as a 'no-win' situation for England but Test cricket is virtually always that for Bangladesh - they have only three victories in 64 outings and none against serious opposition. The Tigers improve year on year but the development is not yet complete. As Shakib looks to mould the second generation of Bangladeshi Test cricketers, the tourists should have it their own way in both games.

Probable Teams

Bangladesh: Tamim Iqbal, Imrul Kayes, Junaid Siddique, Aftab Ahmed, Jahurul Islam, Shakib Al Hasan, Mushfiqur Rahim, Mohammad Mahmudullah, Abdur Razzak, Shahadat Hossain, Shafiul Islam.

England: Alastair Cook, Michael Carberry, Jonathan Trott, Kevin Pietersen, Paul Collingwood, Ian Bell, Matt Prior, Stuart Broad, Graeme Swann, Tim Bresnan, James Tredwell.

Dates: 12-16 March
Morning session: 9:30-11:30 local time (03:30-05:30, GMT)
Afternoon session: 12.10-14.10 local time (06:10-08.10 GMT)
Evening session: 14.30-16.30 local time (08:30-10.30 GMT)

Match referee: Jeff Crowe
Umpires: Tony Hill and Rod Tucker

Peter May