"There's been a lot of talk about pitches on this tour," said the sage Graeme Smith on Indian TV after inspecting the Kanpur pitch.

The Indian media were eager to paint his comments on the wicket with heavy overtones, claiming that he was 'crying foul' over a track that could hardly be described as having been 'prepared to suit Indian needs', given the almost total absence of actual preparation.

But in truth Smithers was a model of calm, and his most telling comment came in his insinuation that India could only win if they doctored the conditions. In light of recent events, it was a statement of justified confidence rather than unqualified arrogance.

There's little doubt that the wicket will be a shocker, to the extent that both camps expect a result within three days. The general consensus was that it looked like a fifth-day surface a full two days before the match even began.

However it remains a massive gamble for India, even if they hold all the cards in the spinning department, because pace bowling can be equally destructive on a broken surface. With bounce becoming dangerously unpredictable, don't rule out the odd injury.

With this in mind it would be a big call for the Proteas to drop one of their pace trio, whom Ganguly has described as the best in the world, for the non-threatening Robin Peterson. Ashwell Prince's place is in danger after a string of poor showings - he has just one century and one half-century from his last 15 innings - and JP Duminy could earn his first Test cap.

Prince aside, the batting line-up has shown great resilience in their three innings so far, which will give them massive confidence as they face up to the Green Park minefield.

Meanwhile India have plenty to ponder. Ishant Sharma has been passed fit - a big boost - and the question must be whether to drop both RP Singh and Sreesanth and retain Irfan Pathan, or keep one of the quicks and axe the all-rounder. They're certain to bring in Piyush Chawla, but can they afford to take out Pathan after such limp batting displays in Ahmedabad?

Captain Anil Kumble's participation will only be confirmed on the morning of the Test as he continues to suffer from a groin injury, and Ramesh Powar is standing by to take his spot in the event of a negative prognosis.

Whatever two teams are put on the park, the name of the game will clearly be application. The home side are on the back foot so expect them to come out swinging, and it promises to be a real gritty Test, reminiscent of the days of uncovered pitches.

Key Men:

India: On a bowler's wicket, someone's got to stand fast in the batting department. It's tailor-made for Rahul Dravid to put up some stubborn resistance and thwart South Africa's much-fêted pace attack.

South Africa: Makhaya Ntini's return to form has been highly commendable given that his style generally doesn't suit conditions on the sub-continent. The Ahmedabad pitch was more to his liking, and this track may also aid him with a wide range of bounce.

Last Five Results:

2008: Second Test: South Africa won by an innings and 90 runs at Ahmedabad
2008: First Test: Match drawn at Chennai
2007: Third Test: South Africa won by 5 wickets at Cape Town
2006: Second Test: South Africa won by 174 runs at Durban
2006: First Test: India won by 123 runs at Johannesburg

Prediction:

South Africa are the team in form and on the rise, and there is a distinct feeling that they are in charge of their own destiny so it would be foolish not to back them, in spite of the conditions.

Probable Teams:

India: Virender Sehwag, Wasim Jaffer, Rahul Dravid, Sourav Ganguly, VVS Laxman, MS Dhoni, Anil Kumble/Ramesh Powar, Harbhajan Singh, Piyush Chawla, Sreesanth, Ishant Sharma.

South Africa: Graeme Smith, Neil McKenzie, Hashim Amla, Jacques Kallis, Ashwell Prince, AB de Villiers, Mark Boucher, Paul Harris, Morne Morkel, Dale Steyn, Makhaya Ntini.

Dates: 11-15 April
Morning session: 09:30-11:30 local time (04:00-06.00 GMT)
Afternoon session: 12.10-14.10 local time (06:40-08.40 GMT)
Evening session: 14.30-16.30 local time (09:00-11.00 GMT)

Umpires: Asad Rauf and Billy Doctrove
Match referee: Roshan Mohanama

Tristan Holme