Where is the first upset of the 2026 T20 World Cup going to come from?

Jonhenry Wilson 11 Feb 2026

United Arab Emirates threatened to upset New Zealand, but ultimately didn't.

With the T20 World Cup starting on Saturday there are plenty of permutations to be worked through in the next month as the 20 sides work their way to the final.

With four pools of five teams, the top two sides from each pool will advance to the Super Eights before the top two sides from each Super Eight pool face each other in the semis for a chance to play in the final.

Let’s take a moment to gaze into our crystal ball and predict which teams will fall by the wayside and which will go all the way.

Looking for upsets

T20 cricket lends itself to upsets and if one thing is certain ahead of the tenth staging of the T20 World Cup, it is that there will be some upsets.

During the previous staging of the tournament there was a win for the USA over Pakistan while Afghanistan beat both New Zealand and Sri Lanka to go all the way to the semis. Where are the upsets likely to come from this time?

Sri Lanka look vulnerable – Sri Lanka are a good team, but they come into the tournament on the back of a 3-0 series thrashing at the hands of England.

They are also set to play several of their games at Colombo’s R Premadasa Stadium where they have a poor record of just eight wins from 32 games.

In a pool that includes one of the tournament favourites in the shape of Australia, Sri Lanka will be vying with Ireland, Zimbabwe and Oman for a spot in the Super Eights.

Oman looks the least likely to cause an upset, but on their day, you can’t help but think any of those sides could get one over the hosts.

Afghanistan is poised to cause trouble – Rashid Khan’s side are in Pool D alongside New Zealand and South Africa.

While the Black Caps and the Proteas are the favourites to go through, Afghanistan are playing in Asian conditions that they will enjoy, and they have a lot of experience and talent in their squad.

In 2024 they made it all the way to the semis and in Rahmanullah Gurbaz and Fazalhaq Farooqi they boasted players who finished at the top of the run scoring and wicket takers lists.

Pakistan – While they should be okay, Pakistan have put themselves under big pressure by forfeiting their game against India.

That means they can’t really afford to lose to any of the other sides in Pool A. While they should be good enough to advance to the next round, Pakistan are a notoriously brittle side and one of Netherlands or USA could take them.

Also read: 8 of the strangest cricket injuries

Super Eights

It is fair to say that India is a banker to advance to the Super Eights. England should also move through comfortably from Group C, with the West Indies likely to join them.

With Bangladesh out of the tournament Group C lacks depth and it is hard to see Nepal, Italy or Scotland advancing.

Pakistan should secure their passage to the Super Sixes, although on some levels the organizers will be hoping that they don’t.

While Pakistan won’t be drawn to face India in the Super Eights, if they advance to the semis there is a very real prospect that they could end up against India again (or even worse they end up scheduled to meet them in the final).

Pakistan will not play India so a semi or the final could end up as a non-event with India granted a walkover victory.

Australia will be without both Pat Cummins and Josh Hazelwood, but they should still advance from the Pool stages.

Their form in the warm-up series against Pakistan was poor, but it is hard to see a situation where they fail to go through to the Super Eights. Expect them to be joined by South Africa and Afghanistan from Pool D with Sri Lanka avoiding the upset to join Australia from Group B.

If those are the teams that come through to the Super Eights then this is where they would be assigned to play:

Pool X: India, Australia, West Indies, South Africa
Pool Y: England, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka

Who makes the semi-finals?

India and England look like the sure things to go through. West Indies are likely to drop out at this stage and with Australia struggling for form and without several key players, expect them to bow out here as well.

That leaves us looking to work out which is Asia’s second strongest T20I side after India? This is a bit of a lottery as realistically any of Afghanistan, Pakistan or Sri Lanka could do it. We are inclined to give it to Afghanistan, whose bowling department is very good.

It leaves us looking at India versus Afghanistan and England versus South Africa.

Final

Last time out the final was South Africa versus India, with the current hosts prevailing. But no host nation has ever won the T20 World Cup and no side has ever defended their title.

Could this be South Africa’s time to finally win a major ICC White Ball trophy. Can India go through the entire tournament without losing? It is hard to know, but we are predicting that India will win this one and become the first side to win the title back-to-back.