T20 World Cup: All the Group B Super 12s progression permutations
The final round of T20 World Cup Round One Group B matches take place on Thursday 21 October 2021 with all four teams still in the hunt for the Super 12s.
Only the top two sides in the group progress to the next phase, and no side has clinched a place while at the same time no team has been eliminated.
Scotland have won both their matches but could still be eliminated while Papua New Guinea are winless but could still pull of an unlikely heist of second place.
What Scotland have to do to make the Super 12s
Despite winning their first two matches, Scotland still need to win their final group game to guarantee their spot in the Super 12.
That’s because a loss to Oman would see the tournament co-hosts equal them on four points with Bangladesh also able to move to four points if they beat Papua New Guinea.
That would see three teams finish the stage on four points and bring net run-rate (NRR) firmly into the equation.
Of the three teams, Oman currently lead this with an NRR of 0.613, just ahead of Scotland (0.575), who are in turn just ahead of Bangladesh (0.500).
Given how tight that is, if Scotland go down they will be hoping Bangladesh also lose or only win by a slim margin.
A win will secure Scotland top spot and see them placed in a group with India, Pakistan, New Zealand, Afghanistan and the second-placed team from Group A.
What Oman have to do to make the Super 12s
A win should be enough to secure Oman a spot in the Super 12 stage, as they would finish above Papua New Guinea and Scotland too given they go into the match with the superior of their two NRRS. Papua New Guinea can only finish on two points, while Oman’s NRR is superior to Scotland’s going into their match tonight.
If Oman suffer defeat, they will need Bangladesh to also suffer a greater defeat but not so great that PNG could leapfrog both of them to second.
What Bangladesh have to do to make the Super 12s
Thanks to their opening match loss to Scotland, Bangladesh’s fate is not in their own hands.
If Bangladesh can beat Papua New Guinea and Scotland can beat Oman, they will be locked in for the Super 12 stage.
If the Tigers beat Papua New Guinea and Oman beat Scotland, it will come down to NRR for Bangladesh, Oman and Scotland.
If Bangladesh lose to Papua New Guinea, they need Scotland to beat Oman and hope that NRR finishes in their favour.
What PNG have to do to make the Super 12s
Despite sitting bottom of the group with zero points, Papua New Guinea are not mathematically out of the Super 12s race.
If PNG can get the better of Bangladesh and Scotland can beat Oman, Papua New Guinea could sneak through.
It would take something truly remarkable, though, given how much they have given up to the other three teams in the group on NRR.
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